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Tiny Reactors

Instapundit Glenn Reynolds caught this interesting local piece in Knoxville KY (home city of Oak Ridge). Did That Airplane Swallow a Reactor?

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The answer of course is yes. The story is pretty interesting and shows that folks were a whole lot more pragmatic about nukes in those days. Not to say they weren’t a little ignorant and a lot cocky but our new day trembling cautiousness is not a reasonable alternative.

That reactor was ‘only’ 100 KW vs a modern reactors multi GW(3 orders of magnitude or 1000x greater) power output. But the DoE is now studying small sealed core reactors as this article discusses in ars technica | Dept. of Energy signs agreements to develop small nuclear generators

Rather than building large, Gigawatt-scale reactor buildings, several companies are developing what are termed small, modular nuclear reactors that produce a few hundred Megawatts of power. These are typically designed to be sealed units that simply deliver heat for use either directly or to generate electricity. When the fuel starts to run down, the reactors will be shipped back to a central facility for refueling. Since they will never be opened on site, many of the issues associated with large plants don’t come into play.

Skeet Shoot

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This piece on StratPage rather says it all. It’s kind of interesting, aircraft become more ‘efficient’ in a technical sense of cargo(including fuel/power)/weight as they grow larger…it’s mostly about geometric effects of volume vs. surface area. There is also a tendency to focus on endurance in drones for obvious reasons, which in air vehicles means slow and relatively large wing spans. Consequently the ‘low threat’ generation of UAV’s are all about the same in regards to vulnerability. But the next generation, Quadopters, UCAVs, Avenger, etc, are all higher performance, trading something away for more performance, and will be significantly less vulnerable.
And let’s be clear the first generation were all about experimentation with the basics, not about high intensity combat ops. If you look at a lot of the manned platforms in service, survival in combat has not been a big driver for the last decade.

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Blue Model – Education and Family Life from Via Meadia

Walter Russel Mead continues his Blue Model contextualization of the 19th, 20th century. A deeply thoughtful look at what was, why it was, and the beginning of a philosophical platform for looking at what is to come:

A family business circa 19th century model

A family business circa 19th century model

American kids spent more time in school as a general rule than kids in other parts of the world in the 19th century, but their “book learning” was only one part of a much broader and richer education that prepared them to be productive citizens. Parents taught kids the fundamentals of agriculture and animal husbandry; they taught them the hundreds of skills that went into maintaining a family farm. In urban areas and sometimes on farms, adolescents went to work on nearby farms or serve as apprentices. There they found production units much like the one they came from: the husband and wife were the proprietors of a bustling family enterprise that might include a few hired hands but in which young people and older people lived, learned and worked side by side.

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In the 20th century, it became increasingly common for both parents to work in quite different jobs and professions, often many miles from home. Blue collar workers worked in factories and warehouses; pink collar workers in service and clerical positions; professionals and white collar workers in offices.

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If we wonder why marriage isn’t as healthy today in many cases, one reason is surely that the increasing separation of the family from the vital currents of economic and social life dramatically reduces the importance of the bond to both spouses – and to the kids.

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Repetitive factory work taught very little; to put ten-year-olds in a factory for a shift was to deprive them of learning and stunt their intellectual growth. On the other hand, office and administrative work often demanded skills that few children could acquire. It was cruel to put kids in the factories or coal mines; useless to put them in an office.

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As the educational system grew more complex and elaborate (without necessarily teaching some of the kids trapped in it very much) and as natural opportunities for appropriate work diminished, more and more young people spent the first twenty plus years of their lives with little or no serious exposure to the world of work.

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In the absence of any meaningful connection to the world of work and production, many young people today develop identities through consumption and leisure activities alone. You are less what you do and make than what you buy and have: what music you listen to, what clothes you wear, what games you play, where you hang out and so forth. These are stunted, disempowering identities for the most part and tend to prolong adolescence in unhelpful ways. They contribute to some very stupid decisions and self-defeating attitudes. Young people often spend a quarter century primarily as critics of a life they know very little about: as consumers they feel powerful and secure, but production frightens and confuses them.

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People often speak of the need to revive vocational and industrial education as a way of reaching students for whom the traditional academic classroom holds little appeal; more basically, education needs to be integrated with the priorities and purposes of life as these young people experience it.

As I said here, complexity and segregation of our lives drove many social changes.

In the 19th century, American communities were small and generally self-managed. Most Americans lived in small towns or in rural areas where government really was something people did for themselves. The “state” scarcely existed; outside port inspectors and postal officials, the federal government was largely invisible. And even at the state level, local communities were much more autonomous than they generally are now. Local mayors and selectmen had very few mandates coming down from on high; people managed their own schools and roads and other elements of their common life by their own lights.

In the 20th century Americans became more politically passive as the state grew. The citizen was less involved in making government and more involved in watching it, commenting on it, and picking candidates who were sold the way other consumer goods are marketed: you voted for which party and candidates you supported, but more and more of the business of government was carried on by permanent civil servants acting under expert guidance. Government did much more to you, and you did less of it yourself.

 WRM discusses the urbanization and complexity of life in the 20th century and I think rightly points out that more gov’t was inevitable.  I would also point out that the above description of the 19th century was largely true till something like the last thirty years.  When I first emerged from my family in the 1980s the vast majority of the land in the US was still governed very lightly.  In many ways the differences between Eastern Urban | West Coast Urban | and the light urban cities most other places, were quite extreme.  But the basic thrust of the above is not affected one iota by that quibble.

Since work itself was so unrewarding for so many, satisfaction came from getting paid and being able to enjoy your free time in the car or the boat that you bought with your pay. It was a better deal than most people have gotten through history, but the loss of autonomy and engagement in work was a cost, and over time it took a greater and greater toll.

there was a feeling that we needed to keep:

up consumption so the economy could work. It was not just the experience of the Depression that led so many to the conclusion that under consumption was the characteristic problem of a capitalist economy.  ……     . Many businessmen promoted imperialism in European countries and to some degree in the US because they wanted …….. markets for their goods. When the age of imperialism came to an end, the intensive development of home markets replaced the extensive development of foreign markets in the eyes of many social thinkers and planners……

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Another factor promoted the rise of a consumer economy: the development of new and much more expensive goods required a psychological and institutional shift. If people couldn’t buy cars and refrigerators — to say nothing of houses — on credit, the markets for these goods would be vanishingly small. Americans had traditionally been averse to debt, whether personal or governmental. They thought like producers, for whom debt is sometimes necessary but always a cost. Thrift mattered, and for many Americans it was a point of pride not to buy on credit; if you didn’t have the cash for something, you waited.

That kind of attitude wouldn’t keep the car factories humming. The blue social model involved an unprecedented expansion in the use of credit by private households, large companies and all levels of government. Debt was the mother’s milk of blue prosperity and John Maynard Keynes was the prophet of the blue age. While consumer finance has deep roots in Anglo-American history, with installment plans used to sell goods like furniture and sewing machines well back into the 19th century, the 2oth century became a golden age of consumer credit, and to carry large balances on credit cards, home mortgages and student loans came to seem normal and respectable in a way that would have shocked Americans living in the 19th century.

Between the 1930s and the 1970s this worked better than many of its critics expected.  In a relatively closed economy like the US, if more people went into debt to buy more stuff, the demand would stimulate economic growth, which would tend to raise wages and employment. The additional income would offset the cost of carrying the debt and support additional consumption as well.

And so round and round the money went and it all worked.  Until globalization began to derail the machine.

But the real problem with the debt-based, consumption-focused blue social model, the one that bothered many social critics even in the days when the blue model was working and looked sustainable, is one of values. A consumption-centered society is ultimately a hollow society. It makes people rich in stuff but poor in soul. In its worst aspects, consumer society is a society of bored couch potatoes seeking artificial stimulus and excitement. They watch programs on television about adventures they will never have. They try to change their consciousness through the consumption of products (entertainment, consumer goods, drugs) rather than by changing the world and accomplishing things. The massive use of recreational and mood altering drugs reflects and embodies the distortions that a passive, consumption-based society produces in human populations over time.

Ultimate Couch Potato Contestant(s)?

The above image could be seen as “The end”…but no its not…humans are only able to take so much passivity (at least at the sociatal level) look at what Putin is facing, 10 years of kleptocracy given a free hand because he has made the lives of more Russian’s better than they ever have been. But now they are sick and tired of the grinding corruption and the insults it produces at every turn. Now even though pretty well off many upper middle class citizens are beginning to look up and ask, ‘what else?’

WRM has been thinking about this for a long time, though not always as an eventually positive thing.  In the 1980’s he perceived the oncoming wave of change as a potential tragedy.  The competition from low wage countries, from our technical near peers in Europe and Japan, now China, India and elsewhere, along with the equally disruptive changes wrought by automation of all sorts have made the Blue Model unsustainable.  The US Model that was the Beacon of the world from the 1950’s to the end of the century is no more and what comes next can only vaguely be seen. 

The Blue Model was pretty coherently envisioned by the thinkers of the late 19th and early 20th century (socialists, communists, fascists.) In the long run we ended up pretty much where they thought we would.  Unfortunately for their meme we ended up there as the seas of changed washed the foundations out from under the model.

Now we need a new model to strive for as the old one crumbles around us.  I move forward by holding to the desire to leave the world a little richer for my passing, but I have no overweening image of the future, I am afraid that the rate of change of change has overcome the human imagination. 

And perhaps we shouldn’t think in the grand sweeping, dehumanizing sweeps the great thinkers of the last interregnum did.  Maybe we all need to think about things we need to do ourselves and for each other, not to each other.  Maybe we should look to the simple guidance and not grand sweeps:

  • The Golden Rule:  Do unto others as you would have done unto you.
  • My rule: Try and make the world a little better for everyone as you pass.
  • The libertarian rule: Who governs least governs best.
  • Libertarian rule 2:  What does not affect me does not concern me.
  • Murphy’s rule: Keep it simple stupid.

Jaja: Worlds first pressure sensitive iPad Stylus

This project to develop a better iPad Stylus is a Kickstarter, crowd sourced project, i.e. the project is funded by putting the prospectus on the website and asking for a set amount of funding to get to the next level.  This is an approach to funding that is taking off big for many types of effort and holds a great deal of promise for W.R.Mead’s Post Blue Model (on which more later.)

The project itself looks reasonably conceived and has what in some circles is called off ramps, that is pieces of the technology that may be of value in their own right. 

jaja cutaway

jaja cutaway

I do have to say that eventually I think a non-capacitive system, maybe even an old style optical dig pen will be needed in addition to the capacitive if the iPad is to reach its peak functionality.  Which is what this Technology Review blog post, Will Designers Take to the iPad3? talks about.  The answer in my opinion is no, I am not a professional but am somewhat ProAm and I find that while the iPad has its liberating effect (frothed about elsewhere) it still has some irritating downsides at times.

Achtung! ACTUV….making life hell for submariners.

Puppy dog making big dog's life hell

Puppy dog making big dog's life hell

This is a fun little program. ACTUV, Anti-submarine, Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel. A not particularly tiny submerged craft that’s not really a submarine (its always got its snort up providing air for its diesel engines.}  ACTUV is designed to folloow opposition submarines around instead of having dedicated manned plaforms like a destroyer or Anti Submarine Patrol Aircraft like a P-3 or P-8 do the job.

In certain circumstances ACTUV could probably be used as a form of cordon, spaced a few miles apart across a channel a submarine is or has to use they can wait patiently for days, weeks, months, until the spot something, whereupon they lock up and follow the target till something with more decision making authority comes along to deal with the matter.

ACTUV would be the end of the drug smuggling semi submersibles or even true submarines.  They can probably greatly enhance and reduce the load on forces tracking bad actors with subs who we need to keep an eye on.

Even more, this is a way of dealing with the expanding threat of conventional submarines (SSKs) that have Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) and can operate nearly silently for many days at sea.  These small vessels are devilishly hard for even modern Anti Submarine Systems to find and in shallow seas and near shore are deadly dangerous. 

 Once found if you can keep an asset ‘on’ them you can usually stay locked on to an SSK, but how do you do that if the asset you are using is a destroyer worth billions or an aircraft worth hundreds of millions with crews who need to go home sometime?  ACTUV solves the problem, localize the target and send for the nearest ACTUV, it sprints to you and locks up on the target.  Thereafter it follows the submarine around day after day after day, until the crew of the submarine, whose only real protection is hiding, give it up and go home for some sessions with the shrinks. There is even a game that was used to crowd source ideas on how to use ACTUV.

The Future of War

The future of war is taking form all around and it is not a vision of super battleships and death rays, though they may exist in infinitesimal numbers the real fighting will be done by tiny groups of specialists (SOCOM, the SEALs and an array of similar highly trained, expensively equipped and lethally effective troops.) Weapons like one discussed in Wired recently, a Proposed program to develop a missile capable of hitting and destroying small targets like SUV’s (60 miles away) that can be fired from another SUV.

SUV being unloaded from a C-17

There is a bit of spy v spy in this and the Wired article is a bit ironic in tone but the truth is this is the future, and in most ways it will continue the trend of things getting better for the majority of humans, it will kill its target without killing hundreds of others and could lead to a ‘decapitation’ strike where the warmaker is taken out of the picture so peace can find a way.  And of course it will be misused, and ill-used and those of good heart and hope will deplore it all.

Of course the use of discrete platforms is nothing new, the recent tragedy in Africa involved a U28.  This is a single engine utility turboprop, built by Pilatus and used all over the world but very intensively in Africa where its low cost of acquisition and operation along with the high reliability of the single turboprop airframe make it highly coveted.  You can think of an SUV as being in the same vein really.

Pilatus, U28

Of course drones will be a big part of future war, though how big and how are interesting questions. If both sides are aggressive users of technology with combat hackers or the like as well as jammers, radio direction finding/ranging and guys (and gals) with skeet shooting guns and skills it should get ‘interesting.’

Here’s a piece of drone related news where things got ‘interesting’ for some bystanders when a crashed drone was given the coup de grâce by one of its robotic compatriots.

Mirasol (Butterfly Wing eReader Screen) out in Asia

An update from TechnologyReview regarding the Qualcom Mirasol based products.  Only in 5.3″ and all obviously based on the same hardware platform right now.  5.3″ is more in line with Asian tastes than US so it makes sense to focus there first  The long hang time (4 years from first hoopla) and small size indicate issues with the manufacturing technology, but nothing helps ManTech more than going to volume.  Hopefully 7, 9 and 11 inch units will follow soon.

Nano Robots Move Out

 

Mothership?

A fascinating set of articles came out recently discussing the progress in micro and nano robotic techniques above. Is the picture from a short piece in IEEE Spectrum discussing the work of Dr. Ada Poon at the Standford Poon Group who are working on medical applications of beamed power. 

Poon Group Tech Map

Poon Group Tech Map

The basis is this technical paper (PDF).  Which talks about the chip, it essentially couples the beamed energy with a tiny antenna and converts the energy to a form needed to drive the chip using a electromagnetic propulsion fabricated on chip.  Very cool.  I will also point out that the Poon Group appears to be reasonably focused, some similar organizations I have run across or worked with have gotten way too diffuse and seem to wander off topic all the time.  Dr. Poon is doing a good job focusing on some key enabling technologies in the field.

So every battle platform needs its weapons, and what do you know these guys seem to have just the ticket.

Researchers at the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering at Harvard University have developed a robotic device made from DNA that could potentially seek out specific cell targets.

DNA Nanobot Shell

DNA Nanobot Shell

Obviously they are looking to ways to use this in the form of a more traditional delivery system, say a shot, but the Dreadnought could also use these for delivering deadly loads into exactly the right spot possibly repeatedly over time without repeated shots etc.

On its own very cool, in combination with everything else going on, mind-blowing!!

And yet we also complain about the costs of medicine.  The reason that money is put into these efforts is both altruistic and profit driven:

  • Medicine is after all about making life better for human beings
  • These techniques promise profound effects with minimal collateral damage
  • These devices can be fabricated in their thousands using ultra clean and precise techniques that will both lower cost and improve performance.
  • The price performance should move towards a Moore’s Rule like model of decreasing price AND increasing performance on a steep slope.
  • Conditions untreatable today will be treatable
  • People who would have died will live…some with health issues that will make them a drain on the economy.
  • Early clinical trials and during ramp up and cost recoupment the prices will be high because of limited supply and price controls…and people will complain about the cost of medicine.

And so the cycle will go on.  Do not take my screeds against Health Care costs and the Medical Establishment as any kind of Luddism, I want more technology more quickly, its the only path to better human lives.  What I hate is the almost Medieval Economic model of the existing ME in the US.

This explains it all! Really! It does!

As e connected as I am I still enjoy sitting down in the morning and reading the Indy Star in its print form.  I have to admit I sometimes spend more time reading the funnies than anything else, but I do scan the first section (and the first and last page of Metro) But I do often read articles and this OpAn (opinion/analytical) piece from the Washington Post caught my attention.  I think Ezra Klein’s caught on to the problem,

There is a simple reason health care in the United States costs more than it does anywhere else: The prices are higher.

Really! It is almost that damned simple.  This graphic or the table version in the Star is infuriating and eye opening. 

Of course it’s not an explanation in and of itself and one could take Mr. Klein’s piece as a pointless frontal attack on the health care industry but the point is much more subtle. As I have discussed broadly before the issue is that things cost as much as they do because the way the current system creates vast inequality almost on purpose through weak and or distorted pricing signals.

A Gifted Man is a great TV show….how is that relevant? In it Michael Holt a brilliant neurosurgeon finds himself ‘gifted’ with the ghost of his wife, a socially conscious doctor who he had divorced (apparently amicably) years before.  While Michael runs Holt Neuro, an extreme high end clinic for the wealthy and powerful, Anna is running a Free Clinic, Clinca Sanando, in a poor section of the city (NewYork though its portrayed as almost any city.)  Anna has been killed in a hit and run, and her ghost goads him into helping the free clinic which is on the edge of folding.  (I could go on, its good TV but won’t.)

The thing is A Gifted Man points out without grinding ones nose in it the huge disparity in health care between the rich and the poor.  It also make the point that one can do good even superior general medicine in very spartan conditions if you have a dedicated and reasonably competent crew.  You can do even more if you back that up with truly superb facilities for those who need it, but those facilities are very expensive and somehow need to be supported by the clients. 

Now the the article points out the cost of medicine in many countries with more socialized medicine and I grew up in England then in middle class America where the conditions in the Doctors office were more reminiscent of the Clinica than Holt, today, I’m middle upper middle economic tranche and all the offices are much more like Holt than the Clinica, but why? Partially because I bitch if I have to wait for an appointment, and partly because I never see the cost until after the fact (except for dental work beyond the basics…becuase many more people lack dental coverage than lack general health insurance.)  In most ways the reason I go to my general practitioner is because he (or his office) keeps track of my overall health and is a central repository of my health records and I value that.  I’d value it even more if I could see it as a cost rather than an overhead hidden in the other post facto numbers I get….in no other part of my life do I have such uncertainty about the cost and yes perhaps because its hidden I’m not as reticent about going, because I know that in the end I can afford it, but many others are not as lucky and the uncertainty is discouraging, and then there are the folks with no coverage, who get bills many times what I pay…in some part because the Medical Establishment figures that in the end with many of those folks will end up paying pennies on the dollar, if you multiply the dollar by some large factor then the ME is more likely to at least cover costs one way or another.

 I do not ever feel that Micheal Holt does not deserve Holt Neuro or that the folks at the Clinica should have unfettered access to Holt Neuro.  I do not (most of the time) begrudge the well off hospitals their cathedral like front lobbies.  I do feel that the system is seriously distorting the messaging power of pricing and under suppressing the power of pricing the Medical Establishment hold because we are all frail humans who if not now then one day will have health issues to deal with.

Establish portable health savings accounts and require published pricing for standard procedures based on standard practice codes (and all procedures should have such codes and a cost you can find if you look or enquire.)  Don’t take away the tax advantages of the coverage companies provide, but extend it to everyone who buys their own insurance.  Reduce that tax advantage over a couple of decades.  Allow insurance companies to negotiate costs but they have to do so based on standard codes and publish some metric of what they are paying, make it illegal to charge different customers different prices for the same procedure (and don’t allow rebadging, the procedure codes have to be the same for all customers.)   Make it illegal for companies to charge different people different insurance rates, insurance takes into account your age and that’s it, different insurance companies can sell different sets of coverage and different age windows but that’s it.   Make the market place fair and flat.  An actuaries job is to make sure the insurance company collects enough money to cover its costs and make a reasonable profit! But again they have to publish their rates and compete for customers and if the marketplace is open and fair the prices will drop to the minium that covers costs and reasonable profits.