OK, if Hornady says it’s so,I guess….

GunsAmerica’s Digest is a good general guns and ammo site picking up articles and topics from all over. Suggested.

The Truth About Ammo – GunsAmerica Exclusive Interview With Hornady

by JORDAN MICHAELS on JANUARY 23, 2021

The emails and social media messages to Hornady’s customer service team haven’t let up in months;

“Where’s all the ammo?”

”Are you still making hunting cartridges?”

“Have you shut down due to COVID?”

“Why are you making T-shirts and not ammunition?”

“Are you hoarding ammunition?

“Are you selling all the ammunition to the government?”

A quick survey of Hornady’s Facebook page reveals of few of these missives.

So I even muttered under my breath, ‘only the Feds have the resources to buy up all the ammo, real people can’t be buying it all.’ Even if I know that’s bat shit crazy.

It was easy to sense the frustration and fatigue in Jason Hornady’s voice when he sat down with GunsAmerica last week. As the vice president of one of the nation’s largest ammunition manufacturers, Hornady has captained the company through the greatest surge in demand in the industry’s history, …

….they increased production by 30 percent last year, when they usually only grow five or ten percent each year. They ran through their entire inventory 18 times in 2020, when a normal year only sees six inventory turnarounds…. “Anything we make yesterday is shipping today,”

“Normally, a guy would buy one or two boxes. Instead, they’re buying cases,” Hornady said.

“Anyone who thinks that ammo companies aren’t trying to make and sell as much as they can, doesn’t understand capitalism,” he said. “We all like money. Nobody wants to ever make less.”

“It’s shipping all the time. We’re all shipping more all the time,” Hornady said. “The biggest thing is, be patient.”

Bottom line? Hornady and other manufacturers are working as hard as they can to meet today’s unprecedented demand.

So there you have it.

There are some supply restrictions on the input side, primer I hear is a big issue. It’s dangerous stuff and a lot is imported because it’s hard to build plant in the US. But even stuff like cardboard boxes are getting hard to get…So…. be patient, soldier on. Don’t burn through your practice stock too fast.

WOW! A cool SETI theory…

Figure: The Wow! Signal. The peak is 32 times the signal to noise ratio of the observations. Courtesy of Sam Morrell. (From the article)

Not much more to be said so I post the intro to the article from Centauri Dreams, about an article/Theory by James Benford. Cool…

Was the Wow! Signal Due to Power Beaming Leakage?

by PAUL GILSTER on JANUARY 22, 2021

The Wow! signal has a storied history in the SETI community, a one-off detection at the Ohio State ‘Big Ear’ observatory in 1977 that Jim Benford, among others, considers the most interesting candidate signal ever received. A plasma physicist and CEO of Microwave Sciences, Benford returns to Centauri Dreams today with a closer look at the signal and its striking characteristics, which admit to a variety of explanations, though only one that the author believes fits all the parameters. A second reception of the Wow! might tell us a great deal, but is such an event likely? So far all repeat observations have failed and, as Benford points out, there may be reason to assume they must. The essay below is a shorter version of the paper Jim has submitted to Astrobiology.

A little air, a bit of heat, some light

What Global Warming? 148 New (2020) Scientific Papers Affirm Recent Non-Warming, A Degrees-Warmer Past at WattsUpWithThat

Climate Change Horror Porn is another tool of the apparat to frighten us. In realty there is an objective truth out there…none of us know it. Two sides largely aligned Left and Right though not precisely have taken sides and because the liberal left is ascendant and deeply intwined in academia and the media they are trying to ‘scare us straight.’ It might be well intentioned in many cases, but ideologues, abusers, users and grifters have gathered around a powerful ideological tool that can be used to manipulate the population.

  • The science such as it is….which is a lot…but not what you are told it is by the media and the ideologues who want to use it.
    • Climate science
      • What climate was/is/will be:
        • Is based on models of how the whole atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere work.
          • Early simple models were very illuminating.
          • Complex models are horribly sensitive to incorrect knowledge and unknowns.
        • A lot of it is based on prior history comparing things like plant and sea life growth vs temperature, CO2 etc.
          • But most of this knowledge is based on proxies up until a decade or at most two ago.
          • Plus sparse and non technical accounts up until the modern era
          • Has a sparse and erratic technical record from about a century and a half.
          • Decent deep record for a couple of decades.
          • Can see what it is today in fair but not omniscient detail.
        • We model the future based on models that we ‘test’ against the past. Like the stock market sometimes these models can do an ok job. But that is only because of parameter fiddling to ‘match the curves.’ The models are by necessity highly simplified and often just plain wrong. For example:
          • recent discovery that cloud impact on surface temperature can increase not decrease surface temperature. And that it may depend on where you are in the world.
          • Recent discovery that CO2 concentration’s affect on green house is not linear and tapers quickly at higher concentrations.
          • That the planetary heat balance is highly affected by cooling at the poles, and that the magnetosphere/sun link into the climate also is highly linked at the poles.
          • Etc.
        • While the first climate models that brilliant men and women came up with less than a century ago have been proven to be largely correct, the details are practically, hardly better modeled today than they were in the 1950’s.
        • Today there are literally hundreds of complex computer models and that are run many times with many different start parameters. They generate families of predictions, effectively at random. Those predictions are never even close to right at a rate greater than chance.
  • Why?
    • Properties of matter
      • As noted above the actual response of a complex system of gasses and aerosols at any particular pressure, temperature, insolation etc is highly variable and not easily modeled in any way.
    • Ocean models:
      • The oceans are a huge thermal reservoir and also a/the major thermal transport system. The heat can be pulled into the ocean moved from the tropics to the poles. This can take decades and it varies year to year, decade to decade. While the basics are well known the variables and even the magnitudes are not fully understood.
      • Temperature and CO2 could cause acidification, maybe this kills coral, maybe the majority types of coral polyps just shifts, maybe the tiny shelled algae have thinned shells maybe not. Maybe more plankton, maybe different distribution. Maybe more fish maybe less…most likely more.
    • Lithosphere models
      • Volcanos emit CO2, CH4, H2O, various other gases and dust all of which affect the weather/climate in ways that are far more complex than modeled and while these events tend to be limited and episodic their magnitude in the moment is immense.
      • Subduction pulls out sequestered limestone etc as well as water and this is not dealt with by the models.
      • The weathering of uplifted rocks and the soils etc have impacts that are not fully understood. We don’t even quite understand the affects of the Tibetan uplift which looks like it had the reverse effect to what was originally theorized.
    • Surface ecology/economy models
      • The effect of higher temperatures and more CO2 can be good, great, bad. The affects could cause desertification, or greening. More trees are good, oh hot trees may be worse, hot climate plants not as good, oh maybe not…
    • Insolation and Solar heating:
      • Do not even fully understand the details of the link of solar radiation into the atmosphere, oceans, land. Do not understand cloud formation, CO2 effect, CH4 effect, H20 (beyond clouds) effect. Knowledge today is orders of magnitude greater than a decade ago but we also know that we understand the interactions far less well than we thought we did and these interactions are complicated.
      • The suns energy output does vary and it is not all about radiation. Sunspots are indicative of a very active solar surface and atmosphere, where our heating comes from. The visible atmosphere is vastly hotter than the surface of the sun due to magnetic energy effects. This is seen in the sun spot activity. More sun spots, more magnetic activity, hotter atmosphere…more radiation….but also vastly more particle based energy pouring off the sun. So radiation varies by some amount but also the earth’s poles are bathed in extra heat from the sun as well and when the sun spot activity is low for extended periods this has an effect at least on the northern hemisphere. Affects in the order of a degree or less are immensely important when talking about billions of tons of atmosphere.
    • Historical records
      • History can be a science and getting at physical data can have a lot of technology but then you have the human element. History is very clear that in the early industrial era there was a period when the Thames in London froze multiple years in a row. Their world was much colder. But the data for the rest of world is much more sparse and so this is discounted as local.
      • The Roman Empire appears to have flourished in a period when the earth was 2C warmer in general. It perished as the temperatures began to fall towards the medieval minimum. Was it local….not very it affected the whole Mediterranean basin and all of Europe.
      • The Mayan civilization collapsed because of changing weather.
      • The birth place of north wester civilization, Mesopotamia, what we call Iraq, the dust bowl we wasted so much blood and angst over, was a tropical tidal marsh only 4000years ago. Why did that change, was it worldwide…
  • So what does science know? Nothing Science is about facts and theories and discovery, it lays out data (facts) and theories about why but each fact is in isolation and a Story has to be created around those nuggets, a logical consistent Story, but a story not Science per se.
  • What we know from a historical perspective with limited understanding of the climate system is :
    • The climate has been INCREDIBLY stable for MILLIONS of years, we could have lived on this Earth any time in the last 500,0000,000 years and probably for the last Billion Years.
    • That includes collisions with small country sized asteroids, the eruption of volcanic rock in the trillions of tons. Changes in CO2, water CH4 and others much greater than today.
    • The system of the world is vast and we are now a player but we are arrogant narcissists if we think we are on the same scale as prior events in planetary history.

The problem this brings into focus is that the Climate Elite, many of whom should know better, wrap any new findings in Public Relations flakery and Narrative that is in general pointed in a certain direction.

Why is that? Because we are humans and we like horror stories and bad news because it gives us an adrenaline charge we are addicted to.

There is a level of truth to the mantra that climate change is bad, but the reality is that we are quite a few centuries away from Dangerous at the current rate. It is also clear that natural variation in the climate is bigger than what we see today, and it is not clear that we are having any significant affect, yet, but its reasonable to worry.

We should also be be aware that the effects that the most reasonable of the ClimateHorror peddlers put out could happen due to natural variation though human inputs are likely to have some effect.

But on the other, other hand, that effect might be mitigation not acceleration…if Earth were starting into an ice age right now(not unreasonable given their cyclical nature and the timing) our excesses might be stopping or slowing a huge die off…because cold kills many more and much more surely than heat…

The main issue with the ClimateHorror is that it is peddled by ‘the elites’ as a Horror story when in fact it is just the world going on about its business. The big problem with this is that ClimateHorror appears to many to be a way to sell Government and Elite intervention in the economy and the world on a huge and on going basis.

The above, the ClimateHorror propaganda and its ‘evil’ element may well not be intentional. It certainly (I think) did not start out that way. The reality is that the various types of folks involved have a broad range of motives for propounding or accepting what is put out there. What I see is that a significant ideological class has taken hold of the Climate as a possible road or part of the path, to power.

These are the ‘types’ of people I see. These are all ways of looking at people, but only in a very narrow view. Few if any people are explained by one issue. But when talking about Climate and ClimateHorror, and What to Do, these are the types I see:

  • The credentialed: Generally PhD level…I have known a lot of PhDs they are generally technically smart sometimes generally brilliant but their training is focused on focus and can discount counter facts with the flip of a neuron: (The following can also be used as sub classes for other classes)
    • True believers: Have convinced themselves that for some reason man’s epoch has some special quality that is leading to doom.
    • Ideologues: Those who want to believe because it fits their model of the world. The actual ‘data’ and ‘models’ are outside of their expertise but they are all in anyway.
    • Fools and Tools: Generally not very smart outside their narrow field but are easily convinced by those they look up to for one reason or another.
    • Grifters: Probably one of the largest groups, there is big, big money in Climate Catastrophe, the reality is way to mundane to make money so lets go all in on the hype.
  • Abusers: They hate mankind while loving ‘people’ and wanting to help. Anyone outside of their circle is evil, anyone on the in, are perfect. This is essentially a cult like group the heads of which are rock hard ideologues willing to kill billions.
  • Users: Grifters who can see that this is a way to power and money. Put the word out in the right way and you can get in with the woke and grind down the deplorable.
  • Useful idiots: A big group, Want to get along but generally believe what the in group believes.
  • Get alongs: A big group ,who just do not want to make waves. May or may not feel ‘it’ much but certainly want to be with the woke.
  • The led: WAY TOO MANY: Who believe what they hear in the moment and get all het up then forget about it till the next time, except as some kind of base, ‘we need to do something!’
  • The immune: A LOT (I hope) Despise those ‘pushing’ stuff and wouldn’t believe them if they said water is wet. Can be quite annoying but a buffer against the ClimateCrud.
  • The OCD: Me i think…hear the story, think it may be right, go and look for themselves, discover that there is another side and that while the basis is real the Crud Storm is an ideology.

Nuff said for now.

Cheers

Grumping

So I pay way to much attention to the internet though I do focus on STEM topics other than libertarian leaning current events and world view ‘stuff.’

One of my favorites is as I have said Scott Adams of Dilbert fame. You can find him on the web quite easily…well unless his support of Orange Man Bad got him kicked off at last.

But one of my grumps ever since the start of Covid has been his ‘blithely panicked’ (yes I meant that) response to what I see as a very serious but never, ever, even close to civilization ending, epidemic.

While I do not agree with those who call it just a flu, I do agree that it has been blown out of all proportion. I suspect that the response has killed more people (untreated conditions, suicide, drug overdose, ennui…) than the disease has.

Also the impact, being highly focused on people like me (a bit older with co morbidities) was tragic but after the first 3 months clearly within the realm of reasonable countermeasures to limit spread among the affected community without broad swath lockdowns (which were and are Fascistic over reactions.)

But Orange Man Bad drove a lot of folks into the fear and freak out theater business and there was nothing that reasonable people (Orange Man Bad amongst them) could do about it. Now ZombieJoe and his HenchWench will use the winding down of the fear frenzy to cover up a lot of their wild eyed supporters power grabs and revenge fantasy role playing.

Now one of the tropes is how hideous this disease is because of its lingering effects. Horrors, you may loose your sense of smell, have brain deficit issues, other health affects lasting who knows how long???

Get a Fucking Grip. I have had several serious infections due to physical damage early in my twenties (bone infection can recur more than once after 40 years!!!!) I also seem to get a really really really bad flue reaction every few years. These episodes have left me depressed and enervated for months…getting on for years. I often hear folks commenting about how serious infections drag out and lead to knock on effects.

This Covid HORROR is only something because we are paying millions of people billions of dollars to pay attention to this one thing.

What that attention has given us is a huge pile of data on what a viral infection can do the human body. And a whole bunch of youngish punkish doctors have seen this effect in detail in multiple patients for the first time and think its something new.

It’s not new, ask any group of older folks with less than perfect health records. And look at reality, this infectious vector and others have been around for hundreds of millions if not billions of years. A variant of this one might have helped kill of the Fucking Neanderthals (along with our ancestors and a few rocks and clubs.)

I was born in the year of the Hong Kong flu, probably a worse flu than this one but much less of a problem because travel was vastly less easy and people didn’t panic when an unknown disease popped up. They had lived with Polio, Typhoid, Yellow Fever, the Mumps, etc, etc most of their lives and were still stunned by the efficacy of the penicillin and its ilk.

I know that few will read this post and even if they did it would have no effect, but as with most Grumps, it helped me. Thank you for your support.

KelTec the wild man of the gun world

KelTec P50: First Look at the New 50-Round 5.7x28mm Pistol

COMPLETE WITH TWO FN P90 MAGAZINES, THE ALL-NEW KELTEC P50 LOADS BY LIFTING UP THE BARREL AND SLIDING THE 50-ROUND 5.7X28MM MAGAZINE I By BALLISTIC STAFF

So I love the old StarGate series and one of the icons of the series was the use of the FN P90 bull pup machine pistol with its 50 round transparent plastic magazine on the top of the barrel, just popping off the bad Egyptian dudes by the dozens.

The reality was that this French sponsored weapon was not just a prop. Developed in the 80’s as better than a pistol, sub machine gun or rifle for vehicle crews and security forces . Something with the ability to penetrate bullet proof vests, carry a lot of rounds, but not load the soldier down or make a big visual impression.

The core of this is the 5.7×28 mm round…a center fire 22 pistol round. With the ability to accurately hit and penetrate at moderate range. A 9in (ish) barrel in a bull pup kept the weapon short. The plastic magazine was bizarre but worked, stacking the rounds sideways with a ramp/pivot to feed the rounds into the chamber. It doesn’t sound like a great idea but apparently it was engineered well and does the job reliably while providing 50 rounds.

The 5.7×28 round has started to make an impact with the current interest in self defense and concealed carry. The Ruger 57, the FN 57 pistol both are modest successes and deservedly so. Now KelTec kicked it up a whole lot with this 5.7x28mm Maxi Pistol…really a bit of a competitor to the P90 which may be out of print now. It is a wild take on what is supposed to be a personal ‘side arm’ but it certainly makes an impression.

Cheers.

Our space science Economy has assets

An artist’s depiction of the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft at work at the asteroid Bennu. (Image: © NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center)

NASA’s OSIRIS-REx probe could make a 2nd stop at infamous asteroid Apophis, at Space.com, and noted in several space related blogs, eMags. This sounds like a fantastic use of a remarkable space asset.

The Japanese asteroid prospector Hayabusa2 dropped off its samples from Ryugu at Earth and is on its way for more exploration last year: Farewell, Ryugu! Japan’s Hayabusa2 Probe Leaves Asteroid for Journey Home

These craft and others such as craft like the voyagers continue to return immensely valuable data long after their primary mission is complete. One of the things NASA and other space science organizations struggle with is supporting these ships long after the original funding timeline is past. This is a great problem to have and by and large the money is found since these are very cheap deep space projects in the big picture.

So my title, the economy of ‘outer space’ is all about data, science, prospecting right now. These are valuable assets that we need to support to provide returns orders of magnitude greater than the cost in the sense of other ways of getting that data, data that is both live affirming in its fascination and valuable as part of the bedrock of our understanding of the universe.

Cheers

For Values of Duh

I used to be an IEEE member though I am an ME. IEEE spectrum is a great tech magazine and site. They have an article up Why Aren’t COVID Tracing Apps More Widely Used? , that seems a bit clueless, it starts…..

a new study suggests that trust and transparency are barriers for broader acceptance of the apps

Sub head of above

So…they needed a study to find this out? A type of app that tracks your location at all times and provides that to an cloud AI so it can figure out who you have been talking to, has trust issues, given what we KNOW about big tech?

Sheesh….

Tragedy of the NotCommons

https://www.pexels.com/@akos-szabo-145938

A blog tag to an article I did not read set me to thinking today. Read on if you think that the Net today is fraught with societal risk.

I have been using the WWW, Internet, since a couple of years after its start as ARPANET and MilNet for email and data transmission. Following it through the years I saw the slow exploration then the exuberant exploitation through the 80’s and 90’s even the 0ughts.

One of the things I had a hard time understanding was the effervescent froth about how this was freedom and that governments could never control it. When governments where the entity that installed it and ran it in many places. There are arguments in support of a weakish case for net freedom but for the masses it is not and will never be a truly open commons.

A big part of this is because of the way most people interface with the Net. They use it like they use a car, get in and drive, many times not knowing a thing about internal combustion engines, transmissions, etc. They are not technically savvy people, but then even people like me, an engineer, thirty plus year user of the Net, do not understand the ‘stacks’ on ‘stacks’ that are the interwoven hardware, firmware, protocols and software that makes the Net hum.

In the early days the Net was about Protocols, eMail and Hyperlink were two critical protocols that enabled communication and the creation of documents (Still, though they are called, Blogs, or Sites) that could be read out of sequence and include incredible depths of information that were simply impossible with a book or the like.

This early Net was dynamic and boisterous but largely a land of technical folks, academics, geeks and nerds. It was a natural environment for them in a way only the still evolving desktop computer had been until then.

After a while businesses started to move in and the media started to look at this as a way of distributing their content without the cost and logistic drag of newsprint, TV stations or even radio. Of course what most did not see coming was that the net would make their old advertiser supported business model very difficult to support over the long term while giving new Platforms (AOL and their ilk, now TWITTER, FACEBOOK etc) a leg up as essentially the new middle man between the consumer and ‘the content.’

But even at the start with AOL et al, some philosopher technical types pointed out that these Platforms ,while they gave Joe User an easy path to the internet, put a barrier between the user and the broader Net. Some like me never went down the platform path because we wanted the depth of the Net in the raw as it were but we pay the penalty of having to work harder to get things that Platform users get for free.

Twenty years on Facebook and Twitter have paved over the Net to a very significant degree. They started as just social networks with different focuses. But they have become the principle distributor of news and opinion. They have sucked up adjacent Net onramps in their fight to gain share and suppress competition. Now they lust after your data so they can sell it to the highest bidder, while using it, somewhat unintentionally to wrap the users in ever thicker cocoons of confirmation bias. They have also strangled the legacy media in its bed by stripping away the advertiser revenue.

Why?

I see 3 main reasons, ease of use, addictive content and the network affect. Ease of Use: You might argue that some of them are not that easy today but in the beginning essentially each of them was drop dead simple, so simple a tweener cheerleader could use it in ten seconds or less. Addictive Content: Most of these tools make something you want to do easy and provide reinforcing feedback, if your tweet goes viral to a 1000 people, woohooo! If your facebook post gets a like from a dozen friends, charge UP! This is addiction. Network affect: Simply stated, a network of 10 people has 100 interconnects, 100 people have 10,000 interconnects, the more people on a platform the more valuable it is to the user as well as the owner. Since you have limited time in your life, you cannot copy identical on multiple platforms going along. Then the platforms will make it hard for you to migrate from them with your list of friends, follows, photos, blogs, whatever.

So?

The title of the article I mentioned at the start said something about Protocols vs Platforms and this was one of those epiphany things you hear about. AHA!

Platforms are largely just Net hubs and they hate open protocols because it will reduce them to pipes and strip away their ability to siphon off value from the users, both consumer and creator.

Facebook or Twitter are just Protocols of Protocols with a software wrapper. Their core are proprietary protocols & software, not open protocols so that competition is impossible. The network affect and the users addiction to the particular flavor of Platform makes changing essentially impossible.

But if the Platforms are required to open their protocols and enable users to migrate their core identity the monopoly would be broken without destroying the user side value. One could even see an anti monopoly order that required some kind of Baby Twitter / Baby Facebook disaggregation that requires the ‘Babies’ interlink and compete.

This seems relatively clear cut process . It would provide the users with competition for their core value that is simply not there today. And while it will hurt the stockholders (who are earning monopolist profits today) it does not strip their assets while providing the opportunity to earn significant returns going forward.

The NonCommons of today, the Platforms, are a tragedy for the users in that their value is stripped without much recompense beyond ease of use. If we go back to the roots of the Net, open protocols, and user value, we have a chance to build back better….and make the Net great again.

Cool Stars, Kinda Literally

Image: This artist’s conception illustrates what brown dwarfs of different types might look like to a hypothetical interstellar traveler who has flown a spaceship to each one…. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

There are a class of celestial objects much heavier than our systems Jupiter but about the same size. They are not really planets just balls of dense hot gas, but they are not really stars because they lack the mass to collapse and heat their core to ignite sustained fusion. These Brown Dwarves are probably one of the most common objects in our universe but little is known about them because until recently they were essentially impossible to find. With new tools and new techniques this fascinating class of in between are coming into focus.

Another fascinating article from Centauri Dreams.