Victor Davis Hanson: Syrian Knowns and Unknowns

by Victor Davis Hanson: @Works and Days: Syrian Knowns and Unknowns September 8th, 2013

From my perspective the best synopsis of the status.

There are no solutions and probably never were any that a politician could stomach.

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Reagan’s ’86 Libyan strike is a reasonable model for a ’13 Syrian strike

From Real Clear Politics: 86 Attack on Libya: A Template for U.S. Action Now

Should we choose to demonstrate our resolve in this manner, we must also prepare for the counter-response of Syria and its confederates. While we should prepare for terrorist attacks, kidnapping, or military strikes against U.S., allied, or Israeli targets, we must be equally vigilant in the cyber-domain. The actions of the Syrian Electronic Army already indicate the ability to launch increasingly sophisticated cyber-disruptions, and Syria’s Iranian sponsors also have significant cyber-capabilities that could be used to disrupt key infrastructure, communications, or energy facilities throughout the region. Suspected Iranian cyber-attacks have already targeted Saudi Aramco and Qatari RasGas, and similar attacks could be part of any retaliation.

Using the historical lesson of 1986’s Operation El Dorado Canyon, U.S. and allied forces can incur significant damage against Syria through a limited campaign and avoid the more deleterious outcomes of inaction or prolonged intervention. The bottom line: Like Reagan in Libya, Obama today has few good options — but the use of chemical weapons by Syrian government forces requires a response, albeit a judicious one.

It seems likely that ‘Syria’ will end up a patchwork of mini states, so we probably should encourage the regime to retreat to its bastion on the coast, perhaps with a loose network of the other small sects in mutual support. Once the players set up their own cores, hopefully they would settle into some kind of loose confederation. Of course the jihadis don’t want this, but if there comes a period of settling out, separating and then taking out the hard liners should become feasible, with local support…expect more drone war…

This requires a basis for a future better time, right now the old regime has proven that the only peace they accept is that of subjugation and coercion. So degrading the regimes offensive capability and its ability to limit future intervention while not going for the jugular, in any more than a symbolic way, makes sense beyond mere face saving. Degrade the offensive forces enough and a defensive cordon is their only hope. It is going to be ugly, monstrous, utterly unfair, but there is no other solution given the situation as it stands today.

Reagan had to live with Carter’s mess, Obama has to deal with his own, times have changed, bad outcomes are accelerating in a more densely populated and seriously degraded world…social and ecological degradation are at the root of this disaster and something was going to break. But the level of horror could have been reduced if action had been taken earlier.

Let’s think about this

I hate to add to the the conspiracy theorist’s trope but think about this; if President Obama were re-elected then impeached…President Biden! That should send a shudder down anyone moderately anything’s spine

So is the main-stream-media in its largely subconscious protection of the president on the cluster-f__k spiraling around the Benghazi attack figuring no one in their right mind would prosecute / impeach Obama if Biden would end up in the oval office?

Don’t get me wrong VP Biden’s probably reasonably smart and competent in the right environment (like his boss) but he’d most likely back the most rabidly reactionary liberal, union, tax and spend policies available because he believes those are the right policies and he’s much more of a doctrinaire warrior than Obama + he’d pretty much know he was toast come the next election.

Upshot? Get out the vote, vote the competent and reasonable Romney in as POTUS. Then if Obama really did leave our people to die, even if he thought it was ‘the right thing to do’ at the time we make sure he never holds another office of public trust..

‘Just sayin’