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NaNoWriMo Day 19 Status
Your Average Per Day 2,574
At This Rate You Will Finish On November 19, 2011
War in the 21st Century, 2nd of 2 parts

Over at Baen Books the second Beating Decline monograph, dealing with the new high tech realms. Ground war, Space and Cyberwar/Borderless War. Has some interesting insights on systems tested in Iraq and ‘Stan that I had not heard but make sense. Here is the 1st post.
NaNoWriMo Day 15 Status
Your Average Per Day 2,826
The Coming ~ Revolution ~ Singularity ~ Multipolar World ~ Collapse of the Social Democratic Model ~ Christmas Season
The world is always changing, it has always been changing and the arrow of time is always in one direction. In this post I said that now is a phonograph needle reading out the wobbles in the world created by all our yesterdays.
There is no going back 7Billion humans now and we will peak at something like twice that possibly in my life-time. And its possible that average life span for many people today could be above a century (and an average life zooming towards that number.)
I believe we are seeing the limits of organizational efficiencies of scale now. That one of the reasons the US still works better than it appears to in the media is because we are 1 a republic, not direct democracy, and 2 the state and local gov’t which are still pretty accountable to the people, do a lot of the real heavy lifting. The focus on our elected King is an aberration, as is the dependence we have developed on ‘congress’ being able to fix things, especially when we put fetters on the members in regards to the big things, while giving them access to the candy shop in regards to the little crap that the rent seekers care about and are willing to pay to get their way.
We have failed to adequately adjust our assumptions and wants to the world of 2011, we are living as if it were in the late 20th century. But while many of us live in the illusion of that world there are many living in other enclaves some of the future, some of different pasts. But with the number of humans with all the knowledge of the world at their finger tips the world has to be on the cusp of change our various ‘tracks’ mixing to create a new locus for the always onward moving phonograph tip of now.
What will that world be like?
In thirty years we’ll be able to look back and say, ‘ah’ see, the future was already here in 2011, we could just have looked at ________________and seen the future!
But filling in that blank is going to take surviving those thirty years. And maybe that won’t be as easy as surviving the last 30 has been….
Complexity and Size…the silent killer of Progressive dreams
I don’t want to crow that I have pondered these things for some time but I have recently seen a couple of posts on some sites where people are beginning to wonder about the problems of size and complexity and interconnectedness that are at least a chunk of the problems bringing the Euro down and that I also think had. I think that its still a nascent thought but R. Fernandez had a pretty good post here that tied this together
I think some of this is in response to the Rauche Book Demosclerosis The Silent Killer of American Government, (which is mentioned in the Belmont Club piece) but I think that this is just one part of the overall puzzle.
demosclerosis…. which Jonathan Rauch defines as “government’s progressive loss of the ability to adapt” as a side-effect of the postwar style of politics that emphasizes interest-group activism and redistributive programs.” In Phillip Longman’s book review of Rauch’s Demosclerosis: The Silent Killer of American Government. – “Rauch rightly asserts that the “American system of governance today is much less at the mercy of any narrow manipulative few than at any time in the past.” The era of back room bosses who called the shots in service of rich patrons is long gone. But that has hardly brought about a more effective, or even more equitable, government, Rauch observes, because it has been replaced by a coalition representing virtually everyone. “We have met the special interests and they are us,” Rauch writes. “Much as mutual funds have offered ordinary people the access to almost every type of productive investment, so interest groups have offered ordinary people access to almost every kind of redistributive investment.””
NaNoWriMo Update 7 Nov
Sunday the 6th…update
So yesterday was bad, had to do some family things from dawn to dusk, or as close as it gets on a Saturday, and just didn’t get anything done. But today! well that is a different kettle of fish, as the old family saying goes:
- Elgin: Intro
- Elgin: Chapter 1
- Elgin: Chapter 2
- STATUS (from NaNoWriMo site)
- Total Words Written14,278
- Average Per Day 2,379
- Words Written Today 4,567
- At This Rate I’ll Finish On November 21, 2011
- Current Day 6
- Target Word Count 50,000 & Average Words Per Day 1,667
- Words Remaining 35,722
- Days Remaining 25
- Words Per Day To Finish On Time1,429
Move along, nothing original to see here…. but maybe some interesting links..
As Russel Mead at Via Meadia writes to great effect the Great Loon, the Duck of Death is dead.
And here is Russel Mead’s interesting take on protests etc. A very insightful piece that hit home once more regarding something that puzzled me… ” There was a time long ago when political protest really mattered. The Vietnam protests didn’t end the war (and didn’t keep Nixon from carrying 49 states against George McGovern in 1972), but they helped end the draft. The civil rights movement led to some of the most profound social changes this country has ever seen. Before that, there were labor and suffragette marches…” ” But these days the old style protests remind me of political conventions: empty and pointless (though noisy and publicized) rituals. “ And he draws a comparison to the conventions. Once the conventions were important, before mass media and instant communications, but now they are just rituals the politic druidic class still hold. In the old days a mass rally meant something, life for the working class was twice todays and wages closer to subsistence, and brutality was expected of the police, going to a rally meant something. Today it’s not much more than a smelly holiday. Not to say that there aren’t some grievances and suffering…but OWS is more theater than struggle. And then Amity Shales had this to say about what these folks want, vs what they need.
I am never going to be the blog-media-news miner that Instapundit is. Here is the latest on the SLS fiasco from Rand Simberg, the Space Launch System is a works program, yes well paid and aerospace is effective economic multiplier but the money could be spent to so much better effect!
(edits, still not getting all of this right the first time)
The Barbarians are at the Gate, but which side?
Aside
Every civilization carries the seeds of its own destruction, and the same cycle shows in them all. The Republic is born, flourishes, decays into plutocracy, and is captured by the shoemaker whom the mercenaries and millionaires make into a king. The people invent their oppressors, and the oppressors serve the function for which they are invented.
– Mark Twain in Eruption
www.twainquotes.com/Civilization.html