A little air, a bit of heat, some light

What Global Warming? 148 New (2020) Scientific Papers Affirm Recent Non-Warming, A Degrees-Warmer Past at WattsUpWithThat

Climate Change Horror Porn is another tool of the apparat to frighten us. In realty there is an objective truth out there…none of us know it. Two sides largely aligned Left and Right though not precisely have taken sides and because the liberal left is ascendant and deeply intwined in academia and the media they are trying to ‘scare us straight.’ It might be well intentioned in many cases, but ideologues, abusers, users and grifters have gathered around a powerful ideological tool that can be used to manipulate the population.

  • The science such as it is….which is a lot…but not what you are told it is by the media and the ideologues who want to use it.
    • Climate science
      • What climate was/is/will be:
        • Is based on models of how the whole atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere work.
          • Early simple models were very illuminating.
          • Complex models are horribly sensitive to incorrect knowledge and unknowns.
        • A lot of it is based on prior history comparing things like plant and sea life growth vs temperature, CO2 etc.
          • But most of this knowledge is based on proxies up until a decade or at most two ago.
          • Plus sparse and non technical accounts up until the modern era
          • Has a sparse and erratic technical record from about a century and a half.
          • Decent deep record for a couple of decades.
          • Can see what it is today in fair but not omniscient detail.
        • We model the future based on models that we ‘test’ against the past. Like the stock market sometimes these models can do an ok job. But that is only because of parameter fiddling to ‘match the curves.’ The models are by necessity highly simplified and often just plain wrong. For example:
          • recent discovery that cloud impact on surface temperature can increase not decrease surface temperature. And that it may depend on where you are in the world.
          • Recent discovery that CO2 concentration’s affect on green house is not linear and tapers quickly at higher concentrations.
          • That the planetary heat balance is highly affected by cooling at the poles, and that the magnetosphere/sun link into the climate also is highly linked at the poles.
          • Etc.
        • While the first climate models that brilliant men and women came up with less than a century ago have been proven to be largely correct, the details are practically, hardly better modeled today than they were in the 1950’s.
        • Today there are literally hundreds of complex computer models and that are run many times with many different start parameters. They generate families of predictions, effectively at random. Those predictions are never even close to right at a rate greater than chance.
  • Why?
    • Properties of matter
      • As noted above the actual response of a complex system of gasses and aerosols at any particular pressure, temperature, insolation etc is highly variable and not easily modeled in any way.
    • Ocean models:
      • The oceans are a huge thermal reservoir and also a/the major thermal transport system. The heat can be pulled into the ocean moved from the tropics to the poles. This can take decades and it varies year to year, decade to decade. While the basics are well known the variables and even the magnitudes are not fully understood.
      • Temperature and CO2 could cause acidification, maybe this kills coral, maybe the majority types of coral polyps just shifts, maybe the tiny shelled algae have thinned shells maybe not. Maybe more plankton, maybe different distribution. Maybe more fish maybe less…most likely more.
    • Lithosphere models
      • Volcanos emit CO2, CH4, H2O, various other gases and dust all of which affect the weather/climate in ways that are far more complex than modeled and while these events tend to be limited and episodic their magnitude in the moment is immense.
      • Subduction pulls out sequestered limestone etc as well as water and this is not dealt with by the models.
      • The weathering of uplifted rocks and the soils etc have impacts that are not fully understood. We don’t even quite understand the affects of the Tibetan uplift which looks like it had the reverse effect to what was originally theorized.
    • Surface ecology/economy models
      • The effect of higher temperatures and more CO2 can be good, great, bad. The affects could cause desertification, or greening. More trees are good, oh hot trees may be worse, hot climate plants not as good, oh maybe not…
    • Insolation and Solar heating:
      • Do not even fully understand the details of the link of solar radiation into the atmosphere, oceans, land. Do not understand cloud formation, CO2 effect, CH4 effect, H20 (beyond clouds) effect. Knowledge today is orders of magnitude greater than a decade ago but we also know that we understand the interactions far less well than we thought we did and these interactions are complicated.
      • The suns energy output does vary and it is not all about radiation. Sunspots are indicative of a very active solar surface and atmosphere, where our heating comes from. The visible atmosphere is vastly hotter than the surface of the sun due to magnetic energy effects. This is seen in the sun spot activity. More sun spots, more magnetic activity, hotter atmosphere…more radiation….but also vastly more particle based energy pouring off the sun. So radiation varies by some amount but also the earth’s poles are bathed in extra heat from the sun as well and when the sun spot activity is low for extended periods this has an effect at least on the northern hemisphere. Affects in the order of a degree or less are immensely important when talking about billions of tons of atmosphere.
    • Historical records
      • History can be a science and getting at physical data can have a lot of technology but then you have the human element. History is very clear that in the early industrial era there was a period when the Thames in London froze multiple years in a row. Their world was much colder. But the data for the rest of world is much more sparse and so this is discounted as local.
      • The Roman Empire appears to have flourished in a period when the earth was 2C warmer in general. It perished as the temperatures began to fall towards the medieval minimum. Was it local….not very it affected the whole Mediterranean basin and all of Europe.
      • The Mayan civilization collapsed because of changing weather.
      • The birth place of north wester civilization, Mesopotamia, what we call Iraq, the dust bowl we wasted so much blood and angst over, was a tropical tidal marsh only 4000years ago. Why did that change, was it worldwide…
  • So what does science know? Nothing Science is about facts and theories and discovery, it lays out data (facts) and theories about why but each fact is in isolation and a Story has to be created around those nuggets, a logical consistent Story, but a story not Science per se.
  • What we know from a historical perspective with limited understanding of the climate system is :
    • The climate has been INCREDIBLY stable for MILLIONS of years, we could have lived on this Earth any time in the last 500,0000,000 years and probably for the last Billion Years.
    • That includes collisions with small country sized asteroids, the eruption of volcanic rock in the trillions of tons. Changes in CO2, water CH4 and others much greater than today.
    • The system of the world is vast and we are now a player but we are arrogant narcissists if we think we are on the same scale as prior events in planetary history.

The problem this brings into focus is that the Climate Elite, many of whom should know better, wrap any new findings in Public Relations flakery and Narrative that is in general pointed in a certain direction.

Why is that? Because we are humans and we like horror stories and bad news because it gives us an adrenaline charge we are addicted to.

There is a level of truth to the mantra that climate change is bad, but the reality is that we are quite a few centuries away from Dangerous at the current rate. It is also clear that natural variation in the climate is bigger than what we see today, and it is not clear that we are having any significant affect, yet, but its reasonable to worry.

We should also be be aware that the effects that the most reasonable of the ClimateHorror peddlers put out could happen due to natural variation though human inputs are likely to have some effect.

But on the other, other hand, that effect might be mitigation not acceleration…if Earth were starting into an ice age right now(not unreasonable given their cyclical nature and the timing) our excesses might be stopping or slowing a huge die off…because cold kills many more and much more surely than heat…

The main issue with the ClimateHorror is that it is peddled by ‘the elites’ as a Horror story when in fact it is just the world going on about its business. The big problem with this is that ClimateHorror appears to many to be a way to sell Government and Elite intervention in the economy and the world on a huge and on going basis.

The above, the ClimateHorror propaganda and its ‘evil’ element may well not be intentional. It certainly (I think) did not start out that way. The reality is that the various types of folks involved have a broad range of motives for propounding or accepting what is put out there. What I see is that a significant ideological class has taken hold of the Climate as a possible road or part of the path, to power.

These are the ‘types’ of people I see. These are all ways of looking at people, but only in a very narrow view. Few if any people are explained by one issue. But when talking about Climate and ClimateHorror, and What to Do, these are the types I see:

  • The credentialed: Generally PhD level…I have known a lot of PhDs they are generally technically smart sometimes generally brilliant but their training is focused on focus and can discount counter facts with the flip of a neuron: (The following can also be used as sub classes for other classes)
    • True believers: Have convinced themselves that for some reason man’s epoch has some special quality that is leading to doom.
    • Ideologues: Those who want to believe because it fits their model of the world. The actual ‘data’ and ‘models’ are outside of their expertise but they are all in anyway.
    • Fools and Tools: Generally not very smart outside their narrow field but are easily convinced by those they look up to for one reason or another.
    • Grifters: Probably one of the largest groups, there is big, big money in Climate Catastrophe, the reality is way to mundane to make money so lets go all in on the hype.
  • Abusers: They hate mankind while loving ‘people’ and wanting to help. Anyone outside of their circle is evil, anyone on the in, are perfect. This is essentially a cult like group the heads of which are rock hard ideologues willing to kill billions.
  • Users: Grifters who can see that this is a way to power and money. Put the word out in the right way and you can get in with the woke and grind down the deplorable.
  • Useful idiots: A big group, Want to get along but generally believe what the in group believes.
  • Get alongs: A big group ,who just do not want to make waves. May or may not feel ‘it’ much but certainly want to be with the woke.
  • The led: WAY TOO MANY: Who believe what they hear in the moment and get all het up then forget about it till the next time, except as some kind of base, ‘we need to do something!’
  • The immune: A LOT (I hope) Despise those ‘pushing’ stuff and wouldn’t believe them if they said water is wet. Can be quite annoying but a buffer against the ClimateCrud.
  • The OCD: Me i think…hear the story, think it may be right, go and look for themselves, discover that there is another side and that while the basis is real the Crud Storm is an ideology.

Nuff said for now.


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